U.S. Oil Production

While working as a scientist at Shell Oil in 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the United States would reach a peak in 1970 and decline thereafter. The following graph shows that he was exactly right:*





*Hubbert did not take into account Alaska, which was not a source of production in 1956. As the line showing total production indicates, Alaskan oil was able to arrest the decline for a while, although not enough to permit the surpassing of the 1970 peak.


Hubbert later applied his methods to global oil production, predicting it would peak between 1995 and 2000. He was wrong. But was he wrong because his theory was wrong or was he wrong simply in the timing? The debate over "peak oil" rages, but the flatness of global production in recent years given overall economic growth makes one sit up and take notice. Here's a chart I posted earlier: