Saturday, January 3, 2009

Oil Found Versus Oil Consumed

I ran across the data that serve as the basis for the graph below in Kevin Phillips' latest book, Bad Money [Penguin, 2008, pp 16-17]. Phillips' own source for the data was an October 2006 interview of Charles Maxwell, an oil analyst, by Barron's. In addition to the graph, I found this interesting quote:

Q: Where are oil prices headed?

A: We are now getting a reaction to the higher oil prices. It is translating into slower economic growth and, of course, it is allied with a rise in interest rates. Don't think that it is just that rising oil prices equal lower economic growth. It is a question of rising oil prices and less liquidity and higher rates that's a triple threat. The bottom could be in the high 40s, though that wouldn't be sustainable. On a yearly average, we will stay in the 60s, but we'll spend a lot of time in the 50s. Then they'll start up again in 2008-2009 and go up for some time. When we get to 130 or 150 there will be another pullback.



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